Claim: Pakistani website MM News says claims about the prediction of an earthquake in Pakistan, India or Afghanistan were “falsely attributed” to Dutch researcher Frank Hoogerbeets. It further states that none of the three aforementioned countries’ names or those of any other South Asian nation appeared on his Twitter account or the website of his employer, SSGEOS.
Fact: The fact-check by MM News is false as Frank Hoogerbeets did indeed make a prediction about a possible earthquake in Pakistan, India or Afghanistan. His explanation is available in a video on the SSGEOS’ YouTube channel.
On 7 February 2023, Pakistani media outlet MM News published an article titled, “Fact Check: Is a Turkey like earthquake expected in Pakistan?” (archive).
The report by MM News contains the following two paragraphs:
“However, a fact-check exercise by MM News revealed that not only the claims were falsely attributed to Frank Hoogerbeets, the Dutch researcher who had predicted about Turkey quake 3 days ago, but it was also revealed that the name of Pakistan, India, or Afghanistan, or any other South Asian country didn’t exist on his Twitter timeline, or at the website of his institution, i.e. SSGEOS.
Besides this, MM News couldn’t find the names of Pakistan, Afghanistan, India or any South Asian country as being predicted for the earthquake in the coming days, at any website recording or in some way predicting seismic activity.”
MM News posted the article amid claims that Pakistan and India may soon experience an earthquake similar to the two that hit Turkey — officially the Republic of Türkiye — as well as Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Cyprus, Georgia, and Armenia.
The 7.5- and 7.8-magnitude earthquakes have left over 10,000 people dead (archive) and thousands of others wounded and homeless.
Soch Fact Check has not investigated the claims made by Frank Hoogerbeets, who shot to popularity following a tweet he posted on 3 February 2023 — three days before the devastating earthquakes in Turkey — in which he said: “Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon).”
Fact or Fiction?
Soch Fact Check went beyond Frank Hoogerbeets’ Twitter account — which he has reiterated multiple times is his only one — and browsed through the videos posted on his employers’ YouTube channel, SSGEOS.
The SSGEOS, which stands for Solar System Geometry Survey, is where Hoogerbeets works as a researcher.
In a video titled “Planetary/Seismic Update 2 February 2023” and posted on 2 February 2023, the Dutch researcher presents analyses and predictions regarding seismic activity based on atmospheric fluctuations.
The caption of the video — which has already surpassed 360,000 views — reads: “Larger seismic activity may occur from 4 to 6 February, most likely up to mid or high 6 magnitude. There is a slight possibility of a larger seismic event around 4 February.”
The transcript for the portion between the 3:03- and 4:05-marks in the video reads as follows: “There is a slight possibility for [a] serious seismic event and, if you look at the atmospheric fluctuations, the latest that we picked up … it isn’t all that much activity in the atmosphere currently. But, on the 29th [January], we picked up a couple of fluctuations and we see again a purple band here over Asia from like baiko [sic] in the North down to the Indian Ocean that has been in on the radar … uh … for several days now. And also to the West purple band … that marks the region from Afghanistan over Pakistan into the western part of [the] Indian Ocean and we see India right in the middle. Interestingly, we [have] already seen a magnitude 5.8 right in between in China and, if we count six days, we would end up around the 4th [February]. And these areas could be a candidate for large seismic activity if we look at the atmospheric fluctuations.
Potential for stronger seismic activity in or near the purple band 1-6 days. This is an estimate. Other regions are not excluded. pic.twitter.com/YC7NJtEdbO
— SSGEOS (@ssgeos) January 29, 2023
Prior to the video, the organisation tweeted on 30 January 2023 a map with two purple bands similar to the ones shown in the video on its YouTube channel, along with the caption: “Potential for stronger seismic activity in or near the purple band 1-6 days. This is an estimate. Other regions are not excluded.”
Therefore, Soch Fact Check concludes that the prediction is correctly attributed to Frank Hoogerbeets and that the researcher did indeed mention Pakistan, India or Afghanistan in his remarks.
Virality
Soch Fact Check found using Twitter search that the MM News article appears in three different tweets due to a change in its URL, i.e., an addition of the word “amp”, so that article can be accessed here and here.
We found the article shared here, here, and here on Twitter. We also found a screenshot of the article shared here on Facebook.
Conclusion: Frank Hoogerbeets did indeed predict a possible earthquake in Pakistan, India or Afghanistan. His explanation is available in a video on the SSGEOS’ YouTube channel. The fact-check by MM News is, therefore, false.